On May 10, 2026, The Guardian published an analysis detailing the multiple hazards facing U.S. President Donald Trump as he prepares for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The piece, titled "Tehran, Taiwan, trade … what are the hazards facing Trump on Xi summit tightrope?", outlines three distinct pressure points: Iran's nuclear program, the status of Taiwan, and the ongoing trade war. Each issue carries the potential for escalation, and each demands a response from a leader who has built his brand on unpredictability.
This moment is a textbook illustration of Chapter 14 of "The Deep Edge" — Risk Management. The chapter's central thesis is counterintuitive: the danger is not risk itself, but the absence of it. A leader who tries to eliminate all risk ends up paralyzed, reactive, and ultimately more vulnerable. The deep leader, by contrast, learns to calculate, embrace, and navigate risk as a strategic asset.
What the framework says
Chapter 14 argues that conventional risk management is a trap. Most organizations — and most leaders — treat risk as something to be minimized or hedged away. They build buffers, diversify portfolios, and avoid confrontation. But in a world of exponential change, this approach guarantees obsolescence. The deep leader understands that risk is not the enemy; it is the raw material of advantage.
The framework distinguishes between three types of risk: avoidable risk (operational failures that can be designed out), strategic risk (calculated bets that define the future), and existential risk (threats that, if realized, end the game). The deep leader focuses on the second category. They do not seek risk for its own sake, but they recognize that without strategic risk, there is no strategic return. The chapter's core insight: "The danger is not risk — it is the absence of risk."
What the leader did
Based on the published account, Trump is approaching the Xi summit not by trying to minimize the hazards, but by leaning into them. The Guardian notes that each of the three issues — Tehran, Taiwan, trade — is a potential flashpoint. Yet Trump has not sought to defuse any of them in advance. Instead, by reported accounts, he is keeping all three on the table as negotiating leverage. This is not recklessness; it is a calculated embrace of strategic risk.
Consider the Taiwan issue. A conventional risk-averse leader might issue a vague statement to avoid provocation. Trump, according to the analysis, has maintained an ambiguous posture that keeps Beijing uncertain. On trade, rather than offering concessions to reduce tension, he has reportedly signaled willingness to escalate further. On Iran, he has not backed away from the maximum-pressure campaign. In each case, the move is not to reduce risk, but to own it — to make the other side bear the uncertainty. This is the deep leader's playbook: transform risk from a liability into a weapon.
"The danger is not risk — it is the absence of risk." — Chapter 14, The Deep Edge
What you can take
The lesson for senior executives in the Middle East is direct. Whether you are navigating geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, or internal transformation, the instinct to de-risk is strong. But the deep leader resists it. Here are three concrete takeaways from this chapter, applied to the Trump-Xi case:
- Audit your risk portfolio. Categorize every major risk as avoidable, strategic, or existential. If you have no strategic risks on your list, you are not leading — you are managing.
- Embrace ambiguity as leverage. Trump's posture on Taiwan is deliberately unclear. In your negotiations, do not rush to clarify every position. Uncertainty is a tool, not a failure.
- Reframe risk as a signal. A high-risk move tells your counterpart that you are serious. When Trump keeps trade escalation on the table, he signals resolve. Use strategic risk to communicate commitment, not just to hedge outcomes.
The Trump-Xi summit is a live case study in risk management as the deep leader practices it. The hazards are real — Tehran, Taiwan, trade — but the leader who tries to eliminate them will lose before the game begins. As Chapter 14 reminds us, the question is not how to avoid risk, but how to make it work for you. That is the edge.